Drone War & Business Disruption: Ukraine launched one of its biggest drone raids on Russia yet, with reports of 620 drones targeting the Moscow region overnight; Russian officials said 180+ were shot down and that a Wildberries logistics warehouse was hit, while Moscow region authorities reported injuries and building damage. Deep-Strike Politics: Russia warned the UK of “consequences” after reports that British-made drones were used in deep strikes inside Russia, escalating the diplomatic fight over London’s military support for Kyiv. Energy & Finance Pressure: Ukraine said it is calculating the cost-effectiveness of drone missions, claiming striking a Russian serviceman costs about $3,032 versus higher enemy sustainment costs, as the wider war continues to strain energy and lending conditions. Trade & Food Risk: Ukraine’s Black Sea export slowdown is again in focus as drone attacks disrupt Russian grain terminals, raising wheat price pressure and threatening storage and cashflow for Ukrainian farmers. EU Economic Resilience: European Solidarity floated a wartime business package for Ukraine—war risk insurance, financing access, and a moratorium on inspections—to help firms survive supply shocks and warehouse losses.
AGP Executive Report
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Cross-Border Strikes & Food Security: Ukraine’s massive overnight drone raid on Russia’s Krasnodar Region killed two people, including an eight-year-old, and wounded dozens, while also knocking out two major grain terminals and halting exports—raising wheat price pressure. Energy War: Russia hit Ukraine’s Izmail port infrastructure and Odesa with strikes, while Naftogaz reported 13 attacks on its facilities in a week, underscoring how the grid and energy supply remain prime targets. EU Sanctions Push: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says the bloc is preparing “most far-reaching” sanctions listings since the war began, with plans to expand the number of sanctioned Russian entities by about a third. Russia’s Internal Economic Strain: A top Russian state economist at VEB was fired after warning Moscow is losing the “war of attrition” and could face a social crisis—an unusual public critique of the war’s costs. Defense & Production Outlook: Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov says Ukraine could use domestically made ballistic missiles against Russia within 3–6 months, aiming to shift the long-range fight beyond drones and cruise missiles. Governance & Mobilization: Ukraine’s acting police chief says over 20,000 draft-evasion cases have been opened since martial law, alongside probes into corruption in recruitment centers. Culture Under Pressure: Ukraine condemned the inclusion of the controversial Russian film “DAU” in the Venice Film Festival, calling it a troubling signal amid Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Cross-Border Drone War & Food Trade: Ukraine hit Russia’s Krasnodar Region with a massive overnight drone raid, killing two including an eight-year-old and wounding dozens, while disrupting Black Sea grain exports by knocking out two major grain terminals—pushing wheat higher as markets focus on export flow risks. Industrial Fallout: Russia struck ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine’s largest steel plant, killing two and injuring 14, damaging power-generation and blast-furnace facilities and forcing partial production halts—another blow to heavy industry during intensified long-range exchanges. Energy & Business Security: Over the past week, Russian forces hit Naftogaz Group facilities 13 times with missiles and drones, damaging equipment and temporarily suspending some operations. Retail & Logistics Pressure: Ukraine says it disabled seven of Wildberries’ ten largest logistics centers, including the Koledino hub, after drone attacks—raising costs and disruption risks for Russia’s e-commerce supply chain. Regional Diplomacy: Armenia’s acting deputy foreign minister met Zelenskyy in Kyiv, signaling continued political and economic dialogue. Crypto Compliance Clash: Reuters reports Binance provided Russian authorities with crypto donation details tied to Ukraine fundraising, later used in terrorism-financing charges—highlighting cross-border data and compliance risks for platforms.
Cross-Border Drone War & Food Trade: Ukraine’s massive overnight drone raid on Russia’s Krasnodar Region killed an eight-year-old and wounded dozens, while also disrupting Black Sea grain exports by knocking out two major grain terminals and triggering fires and infrastructure damage. Moscow Drone Wave: Russia claimed it intercepted 822 Ukrainian drones overnight, with attacks reaching the Moscow region and other areas; officials reported deaths tied to drone strikes and a major Wildberries warehouse fire near Moscow. Wildberries Logistics Hit: Ukraine says it disabled seven of Wildberries’ 10 largest logistics centers, targeting warehouses in Domodedovo and Koledino and earlier hubs across multiple Russian regions—aiming to pressure Russia’s war economy and supply chains. Black Sea Diplomacy: Ukraine’s acting foreign minister Andrii Sybiha discussed Black Sea security with Greece, warning that Russian strikes on ports and civilian vessels threaten navigation, trade, and global food security. Energy Watch: Ukrenergo said no scheduled power restrictions are planned for Aug 17, but urged conservation as some regions still face outages after recent attacks. Defense Industry Signals: Former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov told CBS Ukraine could start using domestically produced ballistic missiles in 3–6 months, potentially changing deep-strike dynamics. Civic Tension in Kyiv: A veteran and protest initiator Dmytro Koziatynskyi said a Kyiv march aimed to reopen dialogue between society and the president after Fedorov’s dismissal and to demand explanations for personnel decisions.
Cross-Border Strikes & Food Trade: Ukraine’s massive drone raid on Russia’s Krasnodar Region killed a child and wounded dozens, while knocking out two major grain terminals and disrupting Black Sea exports, pushing wheat prices higher. Air Defense Strain: Ukraine’s lawmakers and media report it can’t reliably intercept Russia’s ballistic missiles, with interceptor shortages so severe the Air Force has reportedly stopped publishing interception counts. Deep-Strike Tech & Supply Chains: Kyiv says Flamingo cruise missiles hit Russia’s Progress space/rocket center in Samara and struck other military targets, while Ukraine also keeps expanding drone tech for battlefield communications. Wildberries “Warehouse War” Goes Digital: Ukraine’s HUR hit Wildberries’ digital infrastructure, adding cyber pressure to physical strikes on warehouses and logistics hubs. Banking Profit Normalization: Ukraine’s banks’ 1H 2026 profits fell 32% as wartime windfalls fade, with PrivatBank still dominating system earnings. Regional Politics With Economic Fallout: Poland escalated demands over Ukraine’s WWII-era nationalist legacy, threatening EU/NATO support dynamics. Energy & Inflation Context: An ECB study links euro-area inflation mainly to energy supply shocks, underscoring how war-driven disruptions keep feeding costs.
Black Sea & Grain Disruption: Ukraine’s massive drone raid on Russia’s Krasnodar Region hit Novorossiysk and other Black Sea cities, damaging homes and industry and knocking two major grain terminals offline, pushing wheat prices higher and threatening exports. Air Defense Strain: Ukraine stopped publishing missile-intercept numbers, citing Patriot interceptor shortages and the inability to reliably stop ballistic missiles. Long-Range Strikes on War Industry: Kyiv said Flamingo missiles struck Russia’s Roscosmos-linked Progress Center in Samara and hit the Savasleyka air base, while Russia reported hundreds of drone interceptions overnight. Wildberries Goes Digital: HUR says Cyber Corps disrupted Wildberries’ customer service and partially destabilized payment systems after earlier warehouse strikes, with sellers reporting payment delays. Banking Profit Pressure: Ukraine’s banks earned 32% less net profit in 1H 2026 as wartime windfalls fade, with PrivatBank still dominating system earnings. Sanctions & Stolen Grain: Zelensky signed sanctions against 13 ships, 11 Russians, and 28 companies tied to illegal grain exports from occupied territories. Energy Support: Ukraine received €1.8m+ in energy equipment from EU/UK/Germany/Denmark to restore infrastructure in multiple regions.
Black Sea & Grain Disruption: Ukraine’s massive drone raid on Russia’s Krasnodar Krai hit Novorossiysk and other Black Sea cities, killing an 8-year-old and wounding dozens, while knocking out two major grain terminals and tightening global wheat supply. Sanctions & Stolen Goods: Zelenskyy signed new sanctions against 13 vessels, 11 Russian citizens, and 28 entities tied to illegal grain exports from occupied territories, with Ukraine promising to push partners to block the shipments. Defense Procurement & Tech: The Defense Ministry says its DOT-Chain Defence marketplace delivered 1.2M defense items in year one, cutting delivery times to about nine days, while HUR reported Russian cruise-missile guidance chips using Nvidia tech. Energy & Markets: Ukraine warned Egypt that Black Sea strikes could trigger food shortages; meanwhile, wheat futures jumped as traders priced in port and shipping disruptions. State Finance: Ukraine’s State Property Fund raised UAH 3.82B in seven months via privatization, leases, dividends, and work with sanctioned assets. Cross-border Enforcement: Moldova extradited a suspected organizer of draft-dodger escape routes back to Ukraine.
Drone War & Food Trade: Ukraine’s massive overnight drone raid on Russia’s Krasnodar Region hit Black Sea coastal cities and knocked out two major grain terminals near Novorossiysk, disrupting exports and pushing wheat prices higher. Sanctions & Supply Chains: Zelenskyy announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s defense-industrial complex, financial networks, and intermediaries, including firms and ships involved in illegal export of Ukrainian grain. Banking Results: Ukraine’s H1 2026 bank earnings show PrivatBank leading with UAH 24.56bn net profit (down 29.6% y/y), while Universal Bank and Raiffeisen also reported changes in profitability. Business Constraints: A survey finds labor shortages remain the top obstacle for companies under martial law, with mobilization and retention restrictions cited most often. Energy Resilience: DTEK Grids connected 2,700+ household solar stations and other distributed generation in H1 2026, aiming to strengthen regional power resilience ahead of winter. Grain Export Risk: Ukraine warns that without logistics fixes, more than half of planned 2026/27 agricultural exports could stay in-country, threatening farmer liquidity and next sowing. Defense Production Push: Zelenskyy says Ukraine will accelerate strike weapons and expand new air-defense systems, including jet-powered interceptor drones, for the autumn-winter period. Cross-border Politics: Armenia and Ukraine discussed deepening economic ties and people-to-people cooperation during deputy foreign minister talks.
Black Sea Grain Crisis: Ukraine proposed a Black Sea truce to halt attacks on civilian targets after strikes choked shipping and cut Ukraine’s grain exports by 76% year-on-year; Russia has not formally replied, while Novorossiysk terminals were hit and suspended operations. Deep-Strike Energy Pressure: Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat complex in Bashkortostan, sparking fires and raising fuel-supply worries; Kyiv says the campaign targets Russia’s war economy. Drone War Hits Civilians: A massive overnight drone raid on Russia’s Krasnodar Region killed an eight-year-old and wounded dozens, while hundreds of drones hit Black Sea cities and disrupted services. Air-Defense Strain: A senior Ukrainian lawmaker said Kyiv can’t intercept Russia’s ballistic missiles reliably, citing interceptor shortages and Russia’s higher missile output. Winter Cash Support: UNICEF will transfer about UAH 2.01B to Ukraine’s humanitarian account for frontline winter payments to over 104,000 households. Sanctions and Adaptation: Ukraine’s sanctions commissioner said new UK/EU/Canada/Switzerland measures aim to deny Russia time to adjust, including restrictions on banks and shadow-fleet links. Business & Trade Watch: Finland committed €28.5M for new power plants/equipment for Ukrnafta, supporting energy resilience amid attacks.
Black Sea Trade Talks: Ukraine has proposed a deal to Russia to halt attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea, aiming to reopen a crucial grain corridor; Kyiv says it sent the offer via a third party and is waiting for a response as strikes keep pushing shipowners to reroute and raise wheat prices. Drone War & Food Supply: Ukraine’s overnight drone raid on Russia’s Krasnodar region hit Black Sea coastal cities and knocked out two major grain terminals, while Russia reported intercepting hundreds of drones—an escalation that threatens exports and adds pressure to global food costs. Port Shock in Russia: Ukraine struck Novorossiysk, damaging warships and oil-port infrastructure and contributing to grain terminal shutdowns, with reports also pointing to disrupted local water supply. Ukrzaliznytsia Funding: Ukraine’s rail operator faces a potential “tough package” for 2027 unless PSO funding and eurobond restructuring conditions are met, with possible staff cuts, route closures, and asset sales. Starlink Funding Tension: Poland’s foreign minister criticized Elon Musk over excluding Poland from Starlink roaming, raising concerns about continuity for Ukraine-linked terminals. Ukraine Reserves & Trade Gap: Ukraine’s foreign reserves rebounded above $51bn after delayed Western aid arrived, but the goods trade deficit widened, keeping financing stress tied to future tranches and reforms.
Black Sea Trade Under Pressure: Ukraine’s overnight drone strike on Russia’s Krasnodar region hit Novorossiysk and knocked out two major grain terminals, halting exports and pushing wheat prices higher, while Russia reported hundreds of drones intercepted; Kyiv also struck Novorossiysk again, damaging four Russian warships and grain/oil infrastructure, and Izmail faced counterstrikes. Air Defense Crunch: A senior Ukrainian lawmaker says Kyiv can’t intercept the ballistic missiles Russia fires at its cities, as interceptor shortages deepen and Russia’s missile production ramps up. US Pressure on Tanker Strikes: Ukraine paused attacks on oil tankers using Russia’s Novorossiysk port after a US request tied to market stability and US-linked firms. EU Military Funding Boost: Kiel Institute data says EU-backed military aid to Ukraine jumped to 7.2bn euros in June, the highest since US funding ended, though long-term support still lags. Business & Finance: airBaltic outlined a sustainability plan with a smaller A220 fleet and interim financing talks; Ukraine also seeks a free-trade deal with Bosnia and Herzegovina, while a large anti-scam operation shut 94 fraudulent call centers and seized cash, crypto, and luxury assets. Security & War Economy: SSU foiled an FSB-linked spy ring coordinating airstrikes on defense logistics in multiple regions.
Black Sea Trade Shock: Ukraine’s overnight drone-and-missile strike on Russia’s Novorossiysk hit two major grain export terminals and damaged the city’s port and naval base, killing at least three (including an 8-year-old) and forcing terminals to suspend operations—raising wheat price pressure and pushing Russia to reroute cargo to Baltic/Caspian routes. Air-Defense Strain: Ukrainian officials say ballistic missiles and cruise missiles are increasingly getting through as interceptor supplies dwindle, with lawmakers warning the situation is worse than at any point since the full-scale war began. Drone Economy Targeting: Kyiv’s deep strikes on Russia’s Wildberries logistics network are reported to have slashed warehouse capacity and disrupted sales of frontline gear, showing how e-commerce infrastructure is becoming a war-economy lever. Defense Tech Push: Ukraine unveiled the Last Shadow T200 interceptor drone, designed for urban defense and built to counter Russian UAVs with video anti-spoofing features. Regional Logistics Deal: Moldova agreed a 50% rail tariff cut for Ukrainian goods transiting to Romania, aiming to move up to 10% of volumes through Moldova and earn “several million euros” for the rail operator. Policy Pressure at Home: Kharkiv’s mayor urged raising the minimum wage to UAH 10,000 while cutting VAT on basic food to 5% to curb war-driven poverty and price hikes.
North Korea-Linked Strikes: Zelenskyy says Russia used North Korean ballistic missiles in a Zaporizhzhia attack that killed 7 at a steel plant and injured 21, as Kyiv warns Pyongyang is preparing more troops for Russia. Air-Defense Strain: Ukrainian officials and lawmakers say interceptors can’t stop the scale of ballistic threats, with Russia’s missile production and interceptor shortages worsening the situation. Energy & Markets: Ukraine paused drone strikes on tankers using Russia’s Novorossiysk port after a US request, amid concerns about oil-market disruption; separately, wheat prices rose on Black Sea supply disruptions and traders look to the USDA report. Russia’s War Economy: Russia is importing petrol from India as refinery attacks tighten domestic supply, underscoring how Ukraine’s refinery campaign reshapes fuel flows. Legal/Political Pressure: Russia’s Supreme Court barred the anti-war Yabloko party from September elections, shrinking space for dissent. Business & Finance: Finland’s large firms report rising geopolitical risk, while Ukraine’s central bank expands currency limits for individuals and businesses, aiming to ease FX constraints. Defense Tech Talent: A Ukrainian Air Assault training commander says drone warfare is evolving fast and highlights the push toward more autonomy and new ground robotics.
North Korea-linked strikes: Zelenskyy says Russia used North Korean ballistic missiles, Zircons and guided bombs in a deadly Zaporizhzhia attack, killing at least six and injuring 19, as Ukraine warns air-defense shortages are worsening. Energy crunch: ISW warns Russia could nearly double Ukraine’s winter power shortfall as generation capacity falls to about 12GW, while strikes keep hitting logistics and infrastructure. Black Sea trade pressure: Ukraine faces a race against time as port attacks disrupt grain exports; Reuters reports talks with Moldova to move grain by rail to Constanta with a reduced freight rate. Banking rules: The NBU will raise banks’ FX position limits by gradually restoring part of reserves starting Sept 1 (10% per month), easing foreign-exchange risk management for lending. Defense tech for drones: Zvook tests mobile passive acoustic missile/drone detection; Contra-drone unveils D-JACK to disconnect analog FPV drones from operators within up to 1 km. Asset management for business: ARMA is screening 250,000+ sq m of seized warehouse space to transfer it to management for retailers and logistics firms. Regional business ties: Romania destroys drifting drones near the Neptun Deep gas project; Polish retailer LPP keeps sourcing from Bangladesh while seeking settlement talks over $40m in disputed payments.
NBU Currency Liberalisation: Ukraine’s central bank rolled out its biggest easing of currency rules since 2022, doubling daily cash withdrawal limits for legal entities to UAH 200,000 and raising foreign-currency purchase and investment allowances to UAH 200,000 per month, alongside higher corporate card limits abroad. Long-Range Strikes & Air-Defense Strain: Russia and Ukraine traded heavy attacks overnight, including a major strike on Zaporizhzhia that killed five and injured 20, while Kyiv hit Russian energy targets; a Ukrainian drone attack on Tatarstan’s TANECO refinery reportedly killed at least 13. Drone War Hits Russian Retail: Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign continues to target Wildberries logistics, with reports of fires and evacuations in Russian regions—raising pressure on Russia’s consumer supply chains. Defense Industry Scaling: CSG plans to ramp large-caliber ammunition output to about 850,000 rounds by end-2026, with Ukraine a key market for deliveries. Sanctions & Supply Chains: Canada imposed sanctions on Streit Group, accusing the armored-vehicle maker of supplying Russia’s military-industrial complex. Diplomacy & Business Ties: India’s newly appointed ambassador presented credentials in Kyiv and discussed boosting bilateral economic cooperation and contacts between business communities.
Deep-Strike Energy Pressure: Ukraine hit ZapSibNeftekhim in Russia’s Tyumen region, targeting the Central Gas Fractionation Unit after drone debris reportedly caused a fire—another blow aimed at cutting Russia’s industrial and military fuel supply. Air-Defense Reality Check: A senior Ukrainian lawmaker said Kyiv can’t intercept Russia’s ballistic missiles during massive barrages, as interceptor shortages and higher missile output strain defenses. Counter-Drone Arms Race: The U.S. Army is seeking 50mm cannon and ammunition for counter-UAS live-fire tests, while Ukraine’s drone commanders push for faster Western funding to scale long-range effects. Defense Finance & Compliance: Ukraine’s Economy Ministry is drafting changes to expand war-risk insurance for businesses (including leased assets and more sectors) and raise compensation limits. Prosecutor Crackdown: Ukraine’s specialized defense prosecutors reported 488 suspects notified across 384 cases since the year began, citing irregularities in procurement and mobilization-related corruption. Markets & Food: Ukraine’s grain and legume stocks rose to 7.7m tons by early July, and global grain pricing remains volatile as drought and geopolitical risks feed uncertainty.
Air Defense Crunch: Ukraine says it can’t intercept Russia’s ballistic missiles and that interceptor supplies are down to a fraction of earlier levels, as recent barrages still get through. Patriot Tech Tension: US firms Raytheon and Lockheed reportedly fear Ukraine could improve and mass-produce Patriot interceptors if licenses are granted, turning a licensing dispute into a competition worry. Drone War Economics: Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign is targeting Russian logistics and everyday commerce, including Wildberries warehouses far from the border, raising war costs and pressure on shipping. Black Sea Shipping Risk: Escalating attacks on ports and vessels are cutting Ukraine’s grain export capacity and pushing up war-risk insurance and freight costs. Kyiv Business Disruption: From Aug 10, traffic restrictions hit Holosiivsky and Roman Shukhevych avenues for road repairs, affecting daily commuting. Currency Watch: The NBU set the official dollar at 44.76 UAH and the euro at 51.61 UAH. Ukraine-Serbia Trade Push: Zelensky met Vucic in Belgrade, aiming to finish a free-trade deal and expand energy and infrastructure cooperation.
Air Defense Crunch: Ukraine’s lawmakers and officials say Russia’s ballistic missile campaign is outpacing Kyiv’s interceptors, with Patriot shortages leaving cities exposed. Deadly Barrages: Overnight strikes hit Kharkiv and Odesa, while drones killed civilians in the Kyiv region and Belgorod. Defense Spending: The government is revising Defense Forces funding needs through 2026 and seeking extra resources from partners. Missile Supply Push: Ukraine is set to receive 70 ATACMS and 12 M270 launchers from Turkey in a ~$280m package, while the US promises monthly Patriot interceptor deliveries—still “not enough” for Kyiv. Energy & Ports Under Fire: Strikes damaged Odesa port infrastructure and hit Naftogaz assets, raising risks for power stability and export routes. EU Support: The EU added €30m to Ukraine’s Energy Support Fund; Serbia pledged €2m for energy recovery. Business Impact: A German-invested firm in Zhytomyr (Kromberg & Schubert) suspended operations after a strike. War Economy & Sanctions: Ukraine’s budget deficit is projected to reach 35% of GDP in 2026 as sanctions and conflict reshape trade and finance. Public Mood: A KIIS poll finds 61% of Ukrainians are willing to endure the war as long as it takes.
Patriot Supply & Air Defense: Zelenskyy said Ukraine will get US Patriot interceptor missiles every month, but warned the flow still won’t cover needs as 2026 deliveries may be lower than 2025. Long-Range Firepower Deal: The US notified Congress about Turkey’s proposed permanent transfer to Ukraine of 70 M39 ATACMS, 12 M270 MLRS launchers, DPICM rockets and artillery rounds, with deliveries potentially starting in late August after review. Black Sea Shipping Pressure: Turkey urged a moratorium on attacks on vessels after strikes hit commercial shipping; meanwhile, Ukrainian drone pressure is pushing Russian and foreign operators to suspend Black Sea bookings and reroute cargo. Retail Shock Inside Russia: Ukraine’s strikes on Wildberries logistics hubs are disrupting Russia’s retail distribution network, damaging large warehouse areas and squeezing small pickup-point businesses. Energy & Winter Readiness: Energoatom reported Zaporizhzhia NPP lost external power twice on Aug 8, underlining risks under Russian occupation; Ukraine also plans safer school routes with 840 mobile shelters for frontline communities. EU/Regional Trade: Serbia and Ukraine pledged closer economic ties during Zelenskyy’s Belgrade visit, including Danube Corridor and energy support, while Serbia backed Ukraine’s EU path without joining sanctions on Russia. US Tariff Threats: The US Senate passed a bill enabling up to 100% tariffs on goods from top Russian oil/gas importers, raising export and crude-price shock concerns for partners like India.
US Tariff Push on Russian Oil: The US Senate passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, giving Trump broad power to impose tariffs up to 100% on top buyers of Russian oil and gas, a move that could reshape trade costs for partners like India and China. Ukraine Air Defense Crunch: Zelenskyy says Patriot interceptor deliveries are agreed on a monthly basis, but reporting also highlights Ukraine’s inability to stop all ballistic and cruise strikes, underlining a growing air-defense gap. Deep-Strike Economics: Ukraine hit Russian oil refineries (including Ilsky and Syzran) and continued attacks on the “shadow fleet” and logistics, aiming to cut Moscow’s war-fuel supply. Belgrade Business Reset: Zelenskyy’s first official visit to Serbia focused on economic and logistics projects, including the Danube Corridor, energy support, and a push to finalize a long-stalled free trade deal. Black Sea Shipping Friction: Turkey reportedly tightened access for some ships heading to Novorossiysk after attacks, adding uncertainty for regional trade flows. Corporate/Tech Watch: Nebius is valued at about 55x trailing sales as AI GPU cloud demand and a potential Meta deal drive expectations. Ukraine-Related Security & Compliance: Ukraine says it struck Russian infrastructure tied to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, while New Zealand added more Russia-linked cyber and child-relocation sanctions.
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